Lieutenant General Manoj Mukund Naravane, the current Indian army vice-chief, is likely to take over as India’s first Chief of Defense Staff.

Contrary to media speculation that Army Chief General Bipin Rawat would take over as the country’s first Chief of Defense Staff, Naravane is strongly billed to get a ‘double promotion of sorts.’

Rawat is likely to be sent abroad as Ambassador like his predecessor Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag, who is India’s current envoy in the strategic Seychelles islands.

Naravane’s selection has already been endorsed at the defense and security levels and awaits final political endorsement.

South Asian Monitor is privy to the debates within the country’s defense and security establishment regarding the CDS selection process since Prime Minister Narendra Modi, immediately after his return to power this summer, announced that his government would create this position to implement the 2001 Group of Ministers recommendation for the better integration of India’s defense services.

The experts committee set up at the initiative of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval to finalize the CDS made an important recommendation that went against Rawat and in favor of Naravane:

“Considering the nature of the job and skills required in co-ordination and consensus building, it is desirable that the incumbent is identified through a process of deep selection from amongst eligible three-Star, C-in-C level officers of the three services.

“Experience of working in the HQ IDS should be a prerequisite for future appointments, if not the first one. The selection should strictly be merit based and not merely based on seniority.

“Automatic elevation of a Service Chief (serving or retired) to the CDS is not the preferred option on account of shorter residual tenure and constraints of sudden `switch’ from a single service to a tri service orientation.”

“The post should be open to all three services and should not be the monopoly of any particular service. HQ, Integrated Defense Staff (IDS), has matured considerably over the last two decades and is now in a position to provide the CDS with a platform to become fully functional, at par the Service Chiefs.”

The recommendations points to a three-year fixed tenure (less if a Service Chief is elevated to CDS) and a higher age of retirement than the Service Chiefs, thereby providing continuity.

“However, the rules of business should be revised to read: “the responsibility of defense of India will, from now, on rest with Defense Minister and not Defense Secretary”. Thus, while the CDS, like the Service Chiefs, would have a higher status than the Defense Secretary in the warrant of precedence, they would both be heads of respective military and civilian verticals, having direct access and providing independent channels of advice to the Defense Minister on respective subjects.”

According to the recommendations, the CDS is expected to play a dynamic role in defense planning, modernization and force restructuring. While the talk of elevating him to a `five star status’ seems irrelevant in the Indian context, it is equally important that he is not kept confined to being a ‘glorified CISC’.

Some of the roles marked by the experts for the CDS are:

* Exercise operational and administrative command over the ANC (Andaman and Nicobar Command); Cyber and Space Agencies (or Commands, as and when they come up) and Special Operations Division.

* Exercise `administrative control’ over the Strategic Forces Command (SFC), whose `operational control’ rests with the highest political authority.

*Support formulation of National Security Strategy by the NSCS and also be responsible for formulation of National Defense Strategy, Defense Planning Guidelines and Defense Minister’s Operational Directives.

*Scenario building for future operational contingencies, to guide capability development plans.

* Formulation of Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP), Services Capital Acquisition Plan (5 or 7 years, as directed) and Technology Perspective and Capability Road Map (TPCR).

* Creating an interface with DRDO for formulation of their Long Term Technology Perspective Plan (LTTPP).

* Directing conduct of ‘technology scan’ of various weapon systems available or to be developed.

* Directing conduct of strategic assessments for acquisition of major weapon systems.

* Formulating guidelines (in conjunction with MEA) and directing international defense cooperation activities.

* Overseeing and approving intra-service and inter-service prioritization for acquisitions and aligning these to the Defense Budget, with impediments to be addressed through the DPC.

*Evolving joint operations and joint training doctrines.

* Responsibility for establishment and functioning of the National Defense University, all tri-Service Category A training institutions, policy planning and conduct of foreign language training.

* Planning out of Area Contingencies (OOAC) with the three services and conduct of appropriate joint exercises. Building of capabilities for International HADR assistance.

* Creation of tri-Service logistic infrastructure and procedures, tri-Service equipment codification and standardization, supporting innovation and R&D at DRDO and in private industry. Development of an indigenous defense industrial base.

The CDS will be inducted into the recently constituted Defense Planning Committee (DPC) which is headed by the NSA who brings the political guidance of the PMO to the table.

If Lt Gen Naravane finally takes over as the first CDS, the Northern army commander Lt Gen Ranbir Singh is likely to take over as the next Army Chief.

Singh is handling Kashmir and the tense situation on the Line of Control with Pakistan.

Naravane’s reputation as a ‘celebral general’ and his knowledge of China, specially the border situation, has helped his cause says top military sources.

He followed China closely since he was sent to Myammar as defense attache and then as the Eastern Army Commander.